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Fed funds rate at year end·closes in 16mo

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 5.00%?

YES means Above 5.00%

24h volume
0
667 lifetime
Open interest
624
+575 over 7d
Spread
16¢
5 × 130 at the touch
24h range
14¢ – 18¢
25 recent trades
Chance of YES
18%

A YES contract costs 29¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
82%

costs 87¢

YES bid / ask
13¢ / 29¢
NO bid / ask
71¢ / 87¢
24h low 14¢24h high 18¢
Recent buying93% YES · 7% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢20¢30¢40¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask15150¢
  • ask6541¢
  • ask6039¢
  • ask35033¢
  • ask4532¢
  • ask4031¢
  • ask13530¢
  • ask13029¢
spread16¢mid 21¢
  • bid513¢
  • bid10012¢
  • bid20011¢
  • bid257¢
  • bid513¢
  • bid9902¢
  • bid38.9k1¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 5.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.

If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 29 · 6:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2028 · 6:30 AM UTC
floor
5
ticker
KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-28JAN01-T5.00
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 25 trades, 93% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6d ago18¢250bought yes
6d ago16¢100bought yes
6d ago17¢125bought yes
6d ago14¢100bought yes
9d ago13¢27bought yes
1mo ago16¢5bought yes
1mo ago9¢1.09bought no
1mo ago16¢5bought no
1mo ago13¢1bought no
1mo ago16¢5bought no
1mo ago14¢5bought no
1mo ago15¢15bought no
1mo ago18¢5.22bought yes
1mo ago14¢3.45bought no
2mo ago15¢3bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.