French presidential election: who will advance?·closes in 19mo

Will Raphaël Glucksmann qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

YES means Raphaël Glucksmann

24h volume: 0; 9.59 lifetime
Open interest: 9.46; +0 over 24h
Spread: 8¢; 500 × 500 at the touch
24h range: –; 2 recent trades

Chance of YES

A YES contract costs 16¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

92%

costs 92¢

YES bid / ask

8¢ / 16¢

NO bid / ask

84¢ / 92¢

Recent buying0% YES · 100% NO

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask5099¢
ask2,05686¢
ask25085¢
ask50016¢

spread8¢mid 12¢

bid5008¢
bid832¢
bid961¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Raphaël Glucksmann is announced to qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

If a candidate wins the first round outright, and no runoff occurs, the market for that winning candidate will resolve Yes and all other markets will resolve to No. This is determined at the time qualification is announced; subsequent withdrawals, disqualifications, or changes in eligibility do not affect whether the candidate qualified. If a candidate is announced to not qualify, the market will immediately resolve to No.

Settlement sources

Conseil constitutionnel

opened: Jul 10 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes: Apr 17, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Apr 17, 2028 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXFRPRESADVANCE-26APR18-RGLU

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 2 trades, 0% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

When	YES	Contracts	Side
19d ago	8¢	4	bought no
1mo ago	8¢	5.4	bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.