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Next G7 leader out·closes in 223mo

Will President of the United States be the first to leave office?

YES means Donald Trump

24h volume
0
6,042 lifetime
Open interest
4,419
Spread
2¢
3,000 × 250 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 98¢
Recent buying49% YES · 51% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask17636¢
  • ask7835¢
  • ask5033¢
  • ask11029¢
  • ask3028¢
  • ask2927¢
  • ask2626¢
  • ask2504¢
spread2¢mid 3¢
  • bid3,0002¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the individual holding the title of President of the United States at the time of Issuance is the first within G7 leaders to leave their position, then the market resolves to Yes.

The individual must actually leave office and no longer hold their title. An announcement of resignation or intention to leave is not sufficient. In the event of death, the market will resolve to the last traded price prior to death, unless such a price is not available, not logically consistent, or not representative of a fair settlement value, in which case the Exchange may determine a fair value in its sole discretion.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 20 · 7:30 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXG7LEADEROUT-26JUL20-DJT
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 107¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 49% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago4¢9bought no
4d ago3¢356bought no
4d ago3¢200bought no
5d ago4¢1bought no
7d ago4¢213bought yes
7d ago3¢21bought yes
7d ago4¢5bought yes
7d ago3¢24bought no
7d ago3¢16bought no
7d ago3¢5bought no
7d ago5¢29bought no
7d ago4¢454bought no
7d ago3¢1,046bought no
8d ago8¢4bought no
8d ago8¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.