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* Next German federal election winner·closes in 43mo

Will SPD win the next election to the German Bundestag?

YES means SPD

24h volume
0
9,535 lifetime
Open interest
3,150
+2,948 over 90d
Spread
3¢
178 × 96 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 99¢
Recent buying71% YES · 29% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volJul 29Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask14698¢
  • ask14697¢
  • ask1,14759¢
  • ask5007¢
  • ask964¢
spread3¢mid 3¢
  • bid1781¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If SPD wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes.

For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For purposes of this market, the seats won by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) will be combined and treated as a single CDU/CSU option This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 28 · 4:23 PM UTC
closes
Mar 25, 2030 · 2:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Mar 25, 2030 · 2:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXGERELECTION-29MAR25-SPD
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 109¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 71% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
18d ago4¢128bought no
18d ago4¢267bought no
26d ago5¢5bought no
2mo ago7¢200bought no
2mo ago9¢200bought no
2mo ago9¢100bought no
2mo ago9¢15bought no
2mo ago10¢197bought yes
2mo ago6¢2.18bought yes
2mo ago6¢2,000bought yes
2mo ago6¢198bought yes
2mo ago6¢0.01bought yes
2mo ago5¢11bought no
2mo ago5¢12bought no
2mo ago5¢9.25bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.