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Johannesburg mayoral election·closes in 16mo

Will Helen Zille win the next Johannesburg mayoral election following the 2026 municipal elections?

YES means Helen Zille

24h volume
0
3,942 lifetime
Open interest
1,066
+1,066 over 90d
Spread
4¢
500 × 0.74 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
72%

A YES contract costs 75¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
28%

costs 29¢

YES bid / ask
71¢ / 75¢
NO bid / ask
25¢ / 29¢
Recent buying4% YES · 96% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢volJul 20Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask87696¢
  • ask21395¢
  • ask5194¢
  • ask50079¢
  • ask0.7475¢
spread4¢mid 73¢
  • bid50071¢
  • bid47133¢
  • bid73332¢
  • bid9211¢
  • bid2134¢
  • bid2,8303¢
  • bid5,1202¢
  • bid2,6501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Helen Zille wins the next Johannesburg mayoral election following the 2026 municipal elections, then the market resolves to Yes.

Note: Johannesburg voters elect the municipal council, and the executive mayor is then chosen indirectly by a vote of that council This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 9 · 8:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXJOHANNESBURGMAYOR-26DEC31-HZIL
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 97¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 4% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago72¢4bought yes
3d ago72¢6bought yes
7d ago71¢11bought yes
7d ago70¢5bought yes
7d ago65¢3bought yes
8d ago65¢39bought no
9d ago66¢61bought no
9d ago66¢17bought no
9d ago66¢21bought no
13d ago64¢18bought no
13d ago64¢5.02bought no
13d ago64¢10bought no
13d ago64¢10bought no
13d ago64¢9.99bought no
15d ago65¢49bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.