Next Millennium Prize Problem·closes in 223mo

Will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be solved next before 2045?

YES means Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture

24h volume
0
425 lifetime
Open interest
416
Spread
5 × 100 at the touch
24h range
6 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 33¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 73¢

YES bid / ask
27¢ / 33¢
NO bid / ask
67¢ / 73¢
Recent buying98% YES · 2% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture is the first Millennium Prize Problem solved after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.

A Millennium Prize Problem is considered Solved at the earliest time that any of the following occurs: A complete proof, disproof, or counterexample addressing the problem as officially formulated is published in a peer-reviewed journal. The Clay Mathematics Institute or another recognized authoritative academic body officially recognizes in writing that the problem has been resolved by reference to a specific written work. At least two Source Agencies report that the problem has been proven, disproven, or otherwise resolved by reference to a specific publicly available written work. If multiple problems have the same Solution Time, each is treated as the next problem Solved and the market resolves to 1/N, where N is the number of tied problems. A qualifying solution ceases to count if, before Expiration, it is formally retracted, withdrawn, repudiated, rescinded, or found to contain an identified and unaddressed error.

opened
Sep 12 · 10:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2045 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 7, 2045 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMILLENNIUMNEXT-45-BSD
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 6 trades, 98% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago9bought no
6d ago33¢9bought yes
7d ago37¢111bought yes
7d ago38¢89bought yes
7d ago45¢200bought yes
7d ago92¢7.05bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.