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Manned mission to the Moon·closes in 52mo

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

YES means European Space Agency

24h volume
0
7,952 lifetime
Open interest
3,208
+40 over 90d
Spread
1¢
23.9k × 1,263 at the touch
24h range
–
11 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 100¢
Recent buying3% YES · 97% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volJun 25Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask108¢
  • ask6004¢
  • ask2493¢
  • ask23¢
  • ask1,2232¢
  • ask52¢
  • ask22¢
  • ask1,2631¢
spread1¢mid 1¢
  • bid23.9k0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If European Space Agency is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.

If Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) or another US-based company launches a manned mission to the Moon first then the market resolves to Yes for the United States.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 28, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2031 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2031 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMOONMAN-31-E
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 11 trades, 3% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
11d ago1¢36bought yes
19d ago0¢336bought no
19d ago0¢25bought no
19d ago0¢50bought no
19d ago0¢760bought no
19d ago1¢20bought no
19d ago0¢33bought no
20d ago1¢2bought yes
20d ago1¢1bought yes
20d ago1¢1bought yes
2mo ago1¢100bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.