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who will be cast in movie·closes in 28mo

Will Austin Butler be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios?

YES means Austin Butler

24h volume
0
3,329 lifetime
Open interest
728
+0 over 24h
Spread
24¢
5 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
15%

A YES contract costs 38¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
85%

costs 86¢

YES bid / ask
14¢ / 38¢
NO bid / ask
62¢ / 86¢
Recent buying38% YES · 62% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
10¢20¢30¢40¢50¢volSep 20, 11:34 PMSep 21, 4:47 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Austin Butler is cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 14 · 12:25 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-AUS
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 38% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
23d ago15¢100bought no
23d ago16¢5bought no
28d ago14¢100bought no
1mo ago16¢5bought no
1mo ago13¢8bought no
1mo ago15¢5bought no
1mo ago12¢30bought no
1mo ago12¢5.25bought no
1mo ago14¢181bought no
1mo ago14¢50bought no
1mo ago18¢5.25bought yes
2mo ago25¢5bought yes
2mo ago19¢32bought yes
2mo ago21¢7bought yes
2mo ago21¢9.1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.