who will be cast in movie·closes in 28mo

Will Austin Butler be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios?

YES means Austin Butler

24h volume: 0; 3,329 lifetime
Open interest: 728; +0 over 7d
Spread: 27¢; 5 × 5 at the touch
24h range: –

Chance of YES

15%

A YES contract costs 41¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

85%

costs 86¢

YES bid / ask

14¢ / 41¢

NO bid / ask

59¢ / 86¢

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask1382¢
ask3481¢
ask9773¢
ask4672¢
ask9871¢
ask1049¢
ask542¢
ask541¢

spread27¢mid 28¢

bid514¢
bid513¢
bid6512¢
bid3252¢
bid1,0001¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Austin Butler is cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources

opened: Jul 14 · 12:25 AM UTC
closes: Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Jan 1, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXMOVIECAST-XMAN29-AUS

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.