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New Pope·closes in 525mo

Who will the next Pope be?

YES means Luis Antonio Tagle

24h volume
0
24.6k lifetime
Open interest
5,829
+0 over 24h
Spread
4¢
27 × 867 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
13%

A YES contract costs 13¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
87%

costs 91¢

YES bid / ask
9¢ / 13¢
NO bid / ask
87¢ / 91¢
Recent buying60% YES · 40% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volNov 4, 4:16 AMNov 5, 1:32 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask8827¢
  • ask40024¢
  • ask41623¢
  • ask40018¢
  • ask9117¢
  • ask6716¢
  • ask1,16114¢
  • ask86713¢
spread4¢mid 11¢
  • bid279¢
  • bid1389¢
  • bid357¢
  • bid477¢
  • bid616¢
  • bid5006¢
  • bid676¢
  • bid4006¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Luis Antonio Tagle becomes the first person elected Pope before Jan 1, 2070, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 18, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2070 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2070 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEWPOPE-70-LANT
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 34¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 60% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago13¢133bought yes
6d ago9¢16bought no
6d ago9¢256bought no
6d ago11¢5bought no
6d ago9¢1bought no
6d ago9¢13bought no
6d ago9¢400bought no
6d ago9¢14bought no
6d ago11¢8.46bought no
6d ago10¢52bought no
8d ago14¢1.34bought yes
13d ago15¢1bought yes
16d ago14¢29bought yes
16d ago15¢36bought yes
17d ago13¢1bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.