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New Pope·closes in 527mo

Who will the next Pope be?

YES means Pierbattista Pizzaballa

24h volume
1.88
20.0k lifetime
Open interest
2,947
−126 over 90d
Spread
2¢
1,540 × 114 at the touch
24h range
3¢ – 5¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%−2

A YES contract costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 5¢
NO bid / ask
95¢ / 97¢
24h low 3¢24h high 5¢
Recent buying40% YES · 60% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volJun 23Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask117¢
  • ask40016¢
  • ask115¢
  • ask41610¢
  • ask5008¢
  • ask327¢
  • ask1507¢
  • ask1145¢
spread2¢mid 4¢
  • bid1,5403¢
  • bid1,0002¢
  • bid3101¢
  • bid510¢
  • bid5500¢
  • bid11.0k0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Pierbattista Pizzaballa becomes the first person elected Pope before Jan 1, 2070, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 18, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2070 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2070 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEWPOPE-70-PPIZ
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 21¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 40% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4m ago3¢0.03bought no
9m ago3¢0.02bought no
14m ago3¢0.04bought no
19m ago3¢0.02bought no
24m ago3¢0.03bought no
29m ago3¢0.03bought no
34m ago3¢0.01bought no
39m ago3¢0.05bought no
44m ago3¢0.04bought no
49m ago3¢0.04bought no
54m ago3¢0.05bought no
59m ago3¢0.03bought no
1h ago3¢0.02bought no
1h ago5¢1bought yes
1h ago3¢0.01bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.