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Next hurricane date·closed · YES

When will the next hurricane form?

YES means Before Dec 1, 2026

24h volume
0
5,327 lifetime
Open interest
3,128
Spread
100¢
0 × 0 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
99%

A YES contract costs 100¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
1%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 100¢
NO bid / ask
0¢ / 100¢
Recent buying30% YES · 70% NO

This market is closed and resolved YES. Prices shown are the last ones traded.

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Empty book.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a hurricane (wind speeds of at least 74mph) forms in the Atlantic before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Aug 6 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Oct 13 · 2:53 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 1 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEXTHURDATE-26DEC01-26DEC01
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 30% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
25d ago99¢6.1bought no
25d ago99¢461bought no
27d ago99¢94bought no
27d ago99¢1,000bought no
28d ago99¢7.62bought no
28d ago99¢69bought yes
28d ago99¢100bought no
28d ago99¢2.11bought yes
29d ago96¢1bought no
29d ago95¢227bought yes
29d ago91¢7.63bought no
29d ago92¢13bought no
29d ago95¢21bought yes
29d ago92¢0.28bought yes
29d ago95¢0.72bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.