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Next NATO Secretary-General·closes in 879mo

Will Ursula von der Leyen be the next Secretary General of NATO?

YES means Ursula von der Leyen

24h volume
0
714 lifetime
Open interest
118
Spread
1¢
48 × 1 at the touch
24h range
–
42 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 99¢
Recent buying36% YES · 64% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask62251¢
  • ask36850¢
  • ask13646¢
  • ask327¢
  • ask124¢
  • ask2007¢
  • ask26¢
  • ask12¢
spread1¢mid 2¢
  • bid481¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Ursula von der Leyen formally holds the position of Secretary General of NATO, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.

For the purposes of this Contract, "formally holds Secretary General of NATO" means that an individual, company, or group has assumed Secretary General of NATO in an official capacity—whether by appointment, election, succession, confirmation, designation, or acting/interim assignment—and has performed or is recognized to perform the duties or responsibilities of that role for any length of time after Issuance.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 29 · 7:47 PM UTC
closes
Jan 8, 2099 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2099 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEXTNATOSECGEN-99-ULEY
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 77¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 42 trades, 36% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago2¢1bought yes
1d ago1¢1bought no
6d ago1¢1bought no
1mo ago1¢5bought no
1mo ago4¢0.13bought no
1mo ago3¢2bought no
1mo ago3¢2bought no
1mo ago10¢5bought yes
2mo ago2¢5.75bought no
2mo ago3¢9bought no
2mo ago10¢9bought yes
2mo ago3¢10bought no
2mo ago11¢5bought yes
2mo ago10¢1bought yes
2mo ago11¢5bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.