galdor.xyz
Admin
Next NATO Secretary-General·closes in 880mo

Will Ursula von der Leyen be the next Secretary General of NATO?

YES means Ursula von der Leyen

24h volume
0
697 lifetime
Open interest
112
−11 over 90d
Spread
8¢
200 × 200 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 11¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 11¢
NO bid / ask
89¢ / 97¢
Recent buying54% YES · 46% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢10¢20¢volJun 30Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask48786¢
  • ask20085¢
  • ask6261¢
  • ask5960¢
  • ask44454¢
  • ask124¢
  • ask20011¢
spread8¢mid 7¢
  • bid2003¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Ursula von der Leyen formally holds the position of Secretary General of NATO, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.

For the purposes of this Contract, "formally holds Secretary General of NATO" means that an individual, company, or group has assumed Secretary General of NATO in an official capacity—whether by appointment, election, succession, confirmation, designation, or acting/interim assignment—and has performed or is recognized to perform the duties or responsibilities of that role for any length of time after Issuance.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 29 · 7:47 PM UTC
closes
Jan 8, 2099 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2099 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEXTNATOSECGEN-99-ULEY
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 119¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 54% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6d ago2¢5.75bought no
7d ago3¢9bought no
7d ago10¢9bought yes
8d ago3¢10bought no
10d ago11¢5bought yes
11d ago10¢1bought yes
11d ago11¢5bought yes
11d ago11¢2bought yes
11d ago3¢8bought no
11d ago3¢1.61bought no
11d ago10¢5bought yes
11d ago3¢2.08bought no
11d ago7¢18bought no
11d ago6¢5bought no
11d ago3¢2bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.