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Next Secretary of the Army·closes in 40mo

Will Adam Telle be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

YES means Adam Telle

24h volume
0
3,563 lifetime
Open interest
1,607
+1,607 over 30d
Spread
72¢
5 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
46 recent trades
Chance of YES
30%

A YES contract costs 75¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
70%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 75¢
NO bid / ask
25¢ / 97¢
Recent buying49% YES · 51% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢25¢50¢75¢volSep 3Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5,00095¢
  • ask2594¢
  • ask30093¢
  • ask6792¢
  • ask32083¢
  • ask1582¢
  • ask576¢
  • ask575¢
spread72¢mid 39¢
  • bid53¢
  • bid702¢
  • bid1001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Adam Telle formally holds the position of Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.

The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, only a subject who holds the position in a permanent, confirmed, elected, or otherwise non-acting and non-temporary capacity, as formally designated by the body or organization at which the position is held, is treated as formally holding the position; assumption of the role solely in an acting, interim, transitional, provisional, caretaker, pro tempore, or otherwise temporary capacity does not, by itself, satisfy the Payout Criterion. If the first qualifying permanent holder is not named in this event, each named market resolves No.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 3 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 8, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEXTSECARMY-30JAN01-ATEL
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 75¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 46 trades, 49% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago31¢15bought no
4d ago30¢5bought no
6d ago9¢76bought no
6d ago32¢5bought no
6d ago15¢43bought no
6d ago13¢47bought no
6d ago14¢38bought no
6d ago12¢177bought no
6d ago32¢0.66bought no
6d ago32¢4.6bought no
6d ago30¢200bought no
11d ago42¢11bought yes
12d ago48¢2bought yes
12d ago48¢10bought yes
15d ago37¢20bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.