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Next Secretary of the Army·closes in 40mo

Will Sean Parnell be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

YES means Sean Parnell

24h volume
0
4,707 lifetime
Open interest
1,332
Spread
27¢
5 × 20 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
36%

A YES contract costs 32¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
64%

costs 95¢

YES bid / ask
5¢ / 32¢
NO bid / ask
68¢ / 95¢
Recent buying34% YES · 66% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask18299¢
  • ask8998¢
  • ask49085¢
  • ask4.4375¢
  • ask2,16072¢
  • ask5,00034¢
  • ask7533¢
  • ask2032¢
spread27¢mid 18¢
  • bid55¢
  • bid1003¢
  • bid422¢
  • bid1001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Sean Parnell formally holds the position of Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.

The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, only a subject who holds the position in a permanent, confirmed, elected, or otherwise non-acting and non-temporary capacity, as formally designated by the body or organization at which the position is held, is treated as formally holding the position; assumption of the role solely in an acting, interim, transitional, provisional, caretaker, pro tempore, or otherwise temporary capacity does not, by itself, satisfy the Payout Criterion. If the first qualifying permanent holder is not named in this event, each named market resolves No.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 3 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 8, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEXTSECARMY-30JAN01-SPAR
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 75¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 34% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago36¢20bought no
5d ago38¢15bought no
5d ago38¢5bought no
6d ago3¢41bought no
6d ago34¢5bought no
6d ago2¢306bought no
6d ago11¢234bought no
6d ago24¢30bought no
9d ago36¢15bought yes
9d ago36¢5bought yes
9d ago37¢141bought yes
10d ago29¢8.1bought no
10d ago28¢16bought no
12d ago11¢27bought no
12d ago38¢5bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.