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Oscar for Best Supporting Actor·closes in 16mo

Will Paul Giamatti win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars?

YES means Paul Giamatti

24h volume
564
12.3k lifetime
Open interest
8,727
Spread
4¢
29 × 22 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
40%−7

A YES contract costs 39¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
60%

costs 65¢

YES bid / ask
35¢ / 39¢
NO bid / ask
61¢ / 65¢
Recent buying20% YES · 80% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3847¢
  • ask4.1646¢
  • ask9645¢
  • ask8.9544¢
  • ask4.5943¢
  • ask3.0241¢
  • ask1140¢
  • ask2239¢
spread4¢mid 37¢
  • bid2935¢
  • bid95034¢
  • bid2,04633¢
  • bid2,00032¢
  • bid3728¢
  • bid11527¢
  • bid11522¢
  • bid11517¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Paul Giamatti has won Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 11 · 6:55 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOSCARSUPACTO-27-PAU
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 165¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 20% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
41m ago40¢6.27bought yes
41m ago40¢9.09bought yes
41m ago40¢15bought yes
41m ago40¢9.09bought yes
41m ago40¢75bought no
2h ago41¢5bought yes
2h ago41¢63bought yes
2h ago41¢8.98bought yes
2h ago41¢2bought no
4h ago45¢16bought yes
4h ago44¢2.66bought yes
4h ago44¢2.11bought yes
4h ago45¢0.98bought yes
6h ago44¢2.18bought yes
8h ago44¢5bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.