next player black panther·closes in 28mo

Will Denzel Washington perform as the main protagonist in the next theatrical film in the Black Panther franchise produced or distributed by Marvel Studios and officially recognized by Marvel Studios or Disney as the next primary Black Panther motion picture following Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022)?

YES means Denzel Washington

24h volume
0
1,522 lifetime
Open interest
1,446
Spread
85¢
5 × 5 at the touch
24h range
25 recent trades
Chance of YES
8%

A YES contract costs 93¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
92%

costs 92¢

YES bid / ask
/ 93¢
NO bid / ask
/ 92¢
Recent buying97% YES · 3% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5099¢
  • ask3598¢
  • ask3.1296¢
  • ask594¢
  • ask593¢
spread85¢mid 51¢
  • bid5
  • bid5
  • bid50
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Denzel Washington performs/ is announced as the main protagonist in the next theatrical film in the Black Panther franchise produced or distributed by Marvel Studios and officially recognized by Marvel Studios or Disney as the next primary Black Panther motion picture following Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022), then the market resolves to Yes.

For the purposes of this Contract, Denzel Washington satisfies the Payout Criterion if either: Official Announcement: Denzel Washington is officially announced, confirmed, or publicly credited as cast to perform the main protagonist in the next theatrical film in the Black Panther franchise produced or distributed by Marvel Studios and officially recognized by Marvel Studios or Disney as the next primary Black Panther motion picture following Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022), regardless of whether the performance ultimately occurs; OR Actual Performance: Denzel Washington appears on stage, on screen, or in recorded content as the main protagonist in any official performance, showing, or release of the next theatrical film in the Black Panther franchise produced or distributed by Marvel Studios and officially recognized by Marvel Studios or Disney as the next primary Black Panther motion picture following Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022). Additional clarification(s): If the next theatrical film in the Black Panther franchise produced or distributed by Marvel Studios and officially recognized by Marvel Studios or Disney as the next primary Black Panther motion picture following Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022) is entirely cancelled or abandoned before any official performance or release occurs, but Denzel Washington was officially announced in the main protagonist, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” If multiple people are announced for the main protagonist (e.g., alternating cast, dual casting), and Denzel Washington is among them, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.” b The Contract may resolve to “No” prior to the Expiration Date if: (a) the next theatrical film in the Black Panther franchise produced or distributed by Marvel Studios and officially recognized by Marvel Studios or Disney as the next primary Black Panther motion picture following Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022) is cancelled or completes its run without Denzel Washington being announced or performing in the main protagonist, or (b) another person is officially announced as the sole exclusive performer for the main protagonist.

Settlement sources
opened
May 30 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 2, 2028 · 4:59 AM UTC
ticker
KXPERFORMROLEBPANTHER-BP-DEN
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 25 trades, 97% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago151bought yes
6d ago100bought yes
10d ago100bought yes
26d ago63¢2.28bought yes
26d ago100bought yes
28d ago5bought yes
28d ago15bought yes
1mo ago3.12bought yes
2mo ago23bought no
2mo ago10¢23bought yes
2mo ago10bought yes
2mo ago17bought yes
2mo ago10bought yes
2mo ago10bought no
2mo ago10¢242bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.