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Democratic Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

YES means Kamala Harris

24h volume
6,597
7.83M lifetime
Open interest
4.86M
Spread
0¢
35 × 3,116 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
8%

A YES contract costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
92%

costs 92¢

YES bid / ask
8¢ / 8¢
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 92¢
Recent buying11% YES · 89% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask50.3k9¢
  • ask1,0019¢
  • ask12.0k9¢
  • ask4,4288¢
  • ask618¢
  • ask1,0788¢
  • ask32.8k8¢
  • ask3,1168¢
spread0¢mid 8¢
  • bid358¢
  • bid3,3178¢
  • bid25.9k8¢
  • bid5008¢
  • bid647¢
  • bid2,0007¢
  • bid1167¢
  • bid777¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Kamala Harris wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOMD-28-KH
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 98¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 11% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
20m ago8¢5.47bought yes
20m ago8¢5.47bought yes
20m ago8¢5.04bought yes
20m ago8¢22bought yes
20m ago8¢4.77bought yes
20m ago8¢94bought yes
20m ago8¢3.33bought yes
26m ago8¢36bought no
54m ago8¢377bought no
1h ago8¢126bought no
1h ago8¢5.48bought no
1h ago8¢4.79bought no
1h ago8¢0.3bought yes
1h ago8¢3.89bought yes
1h ago8¢4.32bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.