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Democratic Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

YES means Gavin Newsom

24h volume
8,997
10.24M lifetime
Open interest
4.55M
+142.7k over 7d
Spread
1¢
52.3k × 47.7k at the touch
24h range
13¢ – 14¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
14%

A YES contract costs 14¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
86%

costs 87¢

YES bid / ask
13¢ / 14¢
NO bid / ask
86¢ / 87¢
24h low 13¢24h high 14¢
Recent buying46% YES · 54% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,54721¢
  • ask127.7k20¢
  • ask71.9k19¢
  • ask41.3k18¢
  • ask59.6k17¢
  • ask21.1k16¢
  • ask111.0k15¢
  • ask47.7k14¢
spread1¢mid 14¢
  • bid52.3k13¢
  • bid88.8k12¢
  • bid31.3k11¢
  • bid70.5k10¢
  • bid22810¢
  • bid16010¢
  • bid2010¢
  • bid22.2k9¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Gavin Newsom wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOMD-28-GN
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 98¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 46% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
9m ago14¢6.73bought yes
12m ago13¢182bought no
13m ago14¢62bought yes
33m ago13¢141bought no
38m ago14¢135bought yes
43m ago14¢67bought yes
1h ago14¢200bought yes
1h ago14¢150bought yes
1h ago13¢98bought no
2h ago13¢3.41bought no
2h ago14¢14bought yes
2h ago14¢67bought yes
2h ago14¢6.73bought yes
2h ago14¢52bought yes
2h ago14¢105bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.