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Democratic Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Michelle Obama be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

YES means Michelle Obama

24h volume
612
6.45M lifetime
Open interest
4.86M
+236.7k over 7d
Spread
1¢
20 × 15 at the touch
24h range
2¢ – 2¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 98¢
24h low 2¢24h high 2¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5,4134¢
  • ask1784¢
  • ask5,4263¢
  • ask2053¢
  • ask52.8k3¢
  • ask5,1142¢
  • ask2,9342¢
  • ask152¢
spread1¢mid 2¢
  • bid202¢
  • bid3912¢
  • bid1,2971¢
  • bid1,2041¢
  • bid4,9501¢
  • bid25.7k1¢
  • bid100.0k1¢
  • bid6661¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Michelle Obama wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOMD-28-MO
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 98¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
36m ago2¢15bought yes
36m ago2¢67bought yes
5h ago2¢10bought yes
5h ago2¢10bought yes
5h ago2¢26bought yes
5h ago2¢15bought yes
5h ago2¢107bought yes
11h ago2¢45bought no
11h ago2¢166bought no
11h ago2¢8.64bought no
11h ago2¢36bought no
11h ago2¢4.84bought no
11h ago2¢21bought no
12h ago2¢20bought yes
22h ago2¢0.4bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.