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Democratic Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Wes Moore be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

YES means Wes Moore

24h volume
15.5k
4.93M lifetime
Open interest
3.57M
Spread
0¢
80.9k × 66.3k at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 98¢
Recent buying83% YES · 17% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask109.7k3¢
  • ask7.63¢
  • ask13¢
  • ask114.8k3¢
  • ask44.9k3¢
  • ask65.7k3¢
  • ask36.2k2¢
  • ask66.3k2¢
spread0¢mid 2¢
  • bid80.9k2¢
  • bid27.5k2¢
  • bid45.2k2¢
  • bid2252¢
  • bid2,0252¢
  • bid1052¢
  • bid1,3092¢
  • bid502¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Wes Moore wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOMD-28-WM
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 99¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 83% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago2¢2,000bought yes
3h ago2¢203bought yes
4h ago2¢100bought no
6h ago2¢5bought yes
6h ago2¢2,035bought yes
6h ago2¢2,035bought yes
7h ago2¢203bought yes
8h ago2¢4,070bought yes
8h ago2¢122bought yes
9h ago2¢5.92bought no
11h ago2¢3,281bought yes
11h ago2¢788bought yes
13h ago2¢407bought yes
13h ago2¢203bought yes
24h ago2¢56bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.