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Republican Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Elon Musk be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

YES means Elon Musk

24h volume
0
1.48M lifetime
Open interest
1.03M
+1,466 over 7d
Spread
0¢
0 × 2,251 at the touch
24h range
0¢ – 0¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs 0¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 0¢
NO bid / ask
100¢ / 100¢
24h low 0¢24h high 0¢
Recent buying50% YES · 50% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask30.0k1¢
  • ask68.4k1¢
  • ask361¢
  • ask120.0k1¢
  • ask63.4k0¢
  • ask35.0k0¢
  • ask117.7k0¢
  • ask2,2510¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Elon Musk wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Nov 6, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXPRESNOMR-28-EM
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 96¢).

    Recent trades

    Over the last 50 trades, 50% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    2d ago0¢14bought yes
    2d ago0¢651bought no
    2d ago0¢445bought no
    3d ago0¢2bought yes
    3d ago0¢11.5kbought yes
    3d ago0¢3bought no
    5d ago0¢7,137bought no
    5d ago0¢552bought no
    5d ago0¢2,863bought no
    5d ago0¢7,412bought no
    7d ago0¢31bought no
    7d ago0¢148bought no
    7d ago0¢1,592bought yes
    7d ago0¢614bought yes
    7d ago0¢1,000bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.