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Republican Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Ron DeSantis be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

YES means Ron DeSantis

24h volume
22.2k
3.07M lifetime
Open interest
1.73M
+22.1k over 7d
Spread
0¢
22.0k × 25.4k at the touch
24h range
4¢ – 5¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%+0

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask
4¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 96¢
24h low 4¢24h high 5¢
Recent buying86% YES · 14% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20.0k5¢
  • ask60.6k5¢
  • ask20.7k5¢
  • ask725¢
  • ask20.9k5¢
  • ask3,8055¢
  • ask38.0k5¢
  • ask25.4k4¢
spread0¢mid 4¢
  • bid22.0k4¢
  • bid1,0144¢
  • bid3,0304¢
  • bid10.1k4¢
  • bid1224¢
  • bid504¢
  • bid8274¢
  • bid5004¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Ron DeSantis wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOMR-28-RDS
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 98¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 86% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
45m ago4¢426bought yes
5h ago4¢46bought no
10h ago5¢20.4kbought yes
11h ago4¢18bought no
11h ago4¢197bought no
11h ago4¢400bought no
13h ago4¢250bought no
13h ago5¢0.36bought yes
13h ago4¢390bought yes
1d ago4¢15bought no
1d ago4¢21bought yes
1d ago4¢0.21bought yes
1d ago4¢227bought yes
1d ago4¢430bought no
1d ago4¢21bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.