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Republican Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Ivanka Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

YES means Ivanka Trump

24h volume
325
2.28M lifetime
Open interest
1.60M
+14.0k over 7d
Spread
0¢
133 × 75.4k at the touch
24h range
1¢ – 2¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 99¢
24h low 1¢24h high 2¢
Recent buying95% YES · 5% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask52¢
  • ask30.0k2¢
  • ask1532¢
  • ask2,7162¢
  • ask31.7k2¢
  • ask30.0k2¢
  • ask182¢
  • ask75.4k2¢
spread0¢mid 1¢
  • bid1331¢
  • bid1331¢
  • bid1001¢
  • bid1011¢
  • bid2121¢
  • bid2,6341¢
  • bid12.3k1¢
  • bid5,5581¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Ivanka Trump wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 23 · 12:00 AM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOMR-28-ITRU
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 96¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 95% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
58m ago2¢100bought yes
7h ago2¢142bought yes
11h ago2¢0.62bought yes
11h ago2¢4.36bought yes
11h ago2¢12bought yes
11h ago1¢67bought no
1d ago2¢78bought yes
1d ago2¢38bought yes
1d ago2¢7.94bought yes
1d ago2¢312bought yes
1d ago2¢0.62bought yes
1d ago2¢52bought yes
1d ago2¢5.61bought yes
1d ago2¢20bought yes
1d ago2¢100bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.