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Republican Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

YES means Marjorie Taylor Greene

24h volume
0
3.02M lifetime
Open interest
1.71M
Spread
0¢
2,759 × 4,604 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 99¢
Recent buying44% YES · 56% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask712¢
  • ask53.7k1¢
  • ask2,9121¢
  • ask31.1k1¢
  • ask107.3k1¢
  • ask55.8k1¢
  • ask64.1k1¢
  • ask4,6041¢
spread0¢mid 1¢
  • bid2,7591¢
  • bid10.1k1¢
  • bid15.1k0¢
  • bid5,8540¢
  • bid210.5k0¢
  • bid10.05M0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Marjorie Taylor Greene wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 5, 2025 · 10:30 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOMR-28-MTG
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 98¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 44% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago1¢51bought no
2d ago1¢6bought no
2d ago1¢52bought yes
3d ago1¢2,994bought yes
3d ago1¢346bought yes
3d ago1¢6.24bought yes
3d ago1¢225bought no
3d ago1¢5bought no
5d ago1¢10.0kbought no
5d ago1¢3,706bought no
5d ago1¢100bought no
5d ago1¢443bought no
7d ago1¢1,169bought yes
10d ago1¢351bought yes
10d ago1¢58bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.