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2028 Presidential election: exact outcome·closes in 28mo

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?

YES means AOC defeats JD Vance

24h volume
0
11.5k lifetime
Open interest
7,021
+42 over 7d
Spread
7¢
508 × 4 at the touch
24h range
–
42 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%

A YES contract costs 11¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask
4¢ / 11¢
NO bid / ask
89¢ / 96¢
Recent buying64% YES · 36% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 14Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask57899¢
  • ask40498¢
  • ask5897¢
  • ask1,21560¢
  • ask549¢
  • ask57835¢
  • ask43512¢
  • ask411¢
spread7¢mid 8¢
  • bid5084¢
  • bid1,8483¢
  • bid1,0952¢
  • bid16.2k1¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defeats JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Democratic Nominee (PRESNOM), Republican Nominee (PRESNOM), Presidential Winner (PRESPERSON). All conditions must be satisfied the 2028 presidential election.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 9 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 10:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 10:00 AM UTC
ticker
KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07-AOCJVAND
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 107¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 42 trades, 64% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago5¢1bought no
2d ago8¢50bought no
2d ago4¢1.99bought no
2d ago8¢100bought no
2d ago8¢3bought no
2d ago5¢1bought no
5d ago11¢43bought yes
6d ago11¢200bought no
7d ago12¢157bought yes
19d ago11¢128bought yes
20d ago5¢20bought no
28d ago8¢12bought yes
1mo ago8¢59bought yes
1mo ago8¢10bought yes
1mo ago8¢10bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.