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2028 Presidential election: exact outcome·closes in 28mo

Will JD Vance defeat Gavin Newsom in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?

YES means JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom

24h volume
0
17.7k lifetime
Open interest
8,277
+0 over 7d
Spread
6¢
1 × 5 at the touch
24h range
–
35 recent trades
Chance of YES
10%

A YES contract costs 9¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
90%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 9¢
NO bid / ask
91¢ / 97¢
Recent buying43% YES · 57% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5499¢
  • ask1,52774¢
  • ask6573¢
  • ask9472¢
  • ask8.5527¢
  • ask13521¢
  • ask43510¢
  • ask59¢
spread6¢mid 6¢
  • bid13¢
  • bid5502¢
  • bid10.1k1¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom in the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Democratic Nominee (PRESNOM), Republican Nominee (PRESNOM), Presidential Winner (PRESPERSON). All conditions must be satisfied the 2028 presidential election.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 9 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 10:00 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 10:00 AM UTC
ticker
KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07-GNEWJVANR
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 107¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 35 trades, 43% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4d ago10¢1bought yes
16d ago10¢94bought yes
19d ago10¢74bought yes
19d ago9¢1bought yes
25d ago5¢5.73bought no
25d ago6¢1bought no
1mo ago6¢18bought yes
1mo ago6¢13bought yes
1mo ago6¢63bought yes
1mo ago6¢157bought yes
1mo ago7¢124bought yes
1mo ago9¢49bought yes
1mo ago6¢156bought yes
1mo ago6¢300bought yes
1mo ago6¢13bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.