galdor.xyz
Admin
2028 Presidential election: exact outcome·closes in 28mo

Will Marco Rubio defeat Gavin Newsom in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?

YES means Marco Rubio defeats Gavin Newsom

24h volume
0
15.9k lifetime
Open interest
7,581
Spread
2¢
0 × 35 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 100¢
Recent buying32% YES · 68% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2523¢
  • ask9415¢
  • ask20013¢
  • ask1010¢
  • ask105¢
  • ask104¢
  • ask2613¢
  • ask352¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Marco Rubio defeats Gavin Newsom in the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

    This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Democratic Nominee (PRESNOM), Republican Nominee (PRESNOM), Presidential Winner (PRESPERSON). All conditions must be satisfied the 2028 presidential election.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Apr 9 · 2:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Jan 20, 2029 · 10:00 AM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Nov 7, 2028 · 10:00 AM UTC
    ticker
    KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07-GNEWMRUBR
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 107¢).

    Recent trades

    Over the last 50 trades, 32% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    8d ago1¢13bought no
    18d ago1¢23bought no
    18d ago1¢151bought no
    18d ago1¢50bought no
    18d ago3¢94bought no
    19d ago5¢78bought yes
    19d ago5¢16bought yes
    21d ago2¢25bought no
    21d ago5¢74bought no
    21d ago2¢106bought no
    23d ago5¢10bought no
    23d ago5¢536bought no
    28d ago6¢6bought no
    28d ago6¢185bought no
    28d ago6¢99bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.