galdor.xyz
Admin
Party winning presidency·closes in 37mo

Will Republican win the Presidency in 2028?

YES means Republican party

24h volume
7,366
366.0k lifetime
Open interest
175.0k
+17.1k over 30d
Spread
1¢
29.2k × 22.0k at the touch
24h range
34¢ – 35¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
35%

A YES contract costs 35¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
65%

costs 66¢

YES bid / ask
34¢ / 35¢
NO bid / ask
65¢ / 66¢
24h low 34¢24h high 35¢
Recent buying59% YES · 41% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
30¢35¢40¢45¢volOct 7Nov 6

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,87642¢
  • ask1,30841¢
  • ask2,00040¢
  • ask32839¢
  • ask40438¢
  • ask1,00437¢
  • ask6,70136¢
  • ask22.0k35¢
spread1¢mid 35¢
  • bid29.2k34¢
  • bid1,92333¢
  • bid70032¢
  • bid1,66931¢
  • bid1,11230¢
  • bid52829¢
  • bid1128¢
  • bid37227¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESPARTY-2028-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 101¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 59% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1h ago35¢5.46bought yes
2h ago34¢11bought no
4h ago35¢273bought yes
7h ago35¢52bought yes
7h ago35¢1,114bought yes
7h ago35¢200bought yes
7h ago34¢45bought no
8h ago35¢8.19bought yes
10h ago34¢94bought no
10h ago35¢68bought yes
12h ago34¢2.65bought no
12h ago35¢8.19bought yes
13h ago35¢362bought yes
13h ago35¢4.18bought yes
13h ago35¢173bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.