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Party winning presidency·closes in 37mo

Will Republican win the Presidency in 2028?

YES means Republican party

24h volume
15.8k
358.6k lifetime
Open interest
171.4k
+33.3k over 90d
Spread
1¢
7,792 × 16.5k at the touch
24h range
29¢ – 40¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
35%+2

A YES contract costs 35¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
65%

costs 66¢

YES bid / ask
34¢ / 35¢
NO bid / ask
65¢ / 66¢
24h low 29¢24h high 40¢
Recent buying69% YES · 31% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
30¢35¢40¢45¢volAug 7Nov 4

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,88142¢
  • ask1,81441¢
  • ask2,17640¢
  • ask17339¢
  • ask16038¢
  • ask1,04237¢
  • ask8,60636¢
  • ask16.5k35¢
spread1¢mid 35¢
  • bid7,79234¢
  • bid1,46333¢
  • bid66932¢
  • bid52731¢
  • bid50330¢
  • bid58329¢
  • bid4.3228¢
  • bid30027¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESPARTY-2028-R
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 101¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 69% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
28m ago35¢10bought yes
2h ago35¢14bought yes
2h ago35¢27bought yes
3h ago34¢27bought no
3h ago35¢5.46bought yes
4h ago35¢27bought yes
4h ago35¢2.71bought yes
5h ago35¢1.67bought yes
5h ago35¢135bought yes
5h ago35¢112bought yes
5h ago35¢10bought yes
5h ago34¢5bought no
5h ago34¢3bought no
6h ago35¢1.91bought yes
6h ago35¢27bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.