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Pres person·closes in 38mo

Who will win the next presidential election?

YES means Andy Beshear

24h volume
3,785
1.96M lifetime
Open interest
1.65M
Spread
0¢
451 × 11 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%−0

A YES contract costs 3¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 3¢
NO bid / ask
97¢ / 98¢
Recent buying53% YES · 47% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask18.4k3¢
  • ask15.0k3¢
  • ask883¢
  • ask29.8k3¢
  • ask60.2k3¢
  • ask42.9k3¢
  • ask3,3233¢
  • ask113¢
spread0¢mid 3¢
  • bid4513¢
  • bid10.7k2¢
  • bid1212¢
  • bid6,3402¢
  • bid2352¢
  • bid4,4872¢
  • bid50.1k2¢
  • bid1002¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Andy Beshear is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 10, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESPERSON-28-ABES
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 94¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 53% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
8m ago3¢51bought no
2h ago3¢31bought no
2h ago3¢48bought no
2h ago3¢5.01bought no
2h ago3¢1.44bought no
2h ago3¢818bought no
2h ago3¢438bought no
4h ago3¢67bought yes
5h ago3¢2,083bought yes
10h ago3¢198bought yes
10h ago3¢10bought yes
23h ago3¢34bought no
1d ago3¢1,331bought yes
1d ago3¢1.99bought yes
1d ago3¢5.16bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.