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Pres person·closes in 38mo

Who will win the next presidential election?

YES means Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

24h volume
3,683
4.25M lifetime
Open interest
2.45M
+172 over 24h
Spread
0¢
794 × 14.7k at the touch
24h range
9¢ – 9¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
9%−0

A YES contract costs 9¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
91%

costs 91¢

YES bid / ask
9¢ / 9¢
NO bid / ask
91¢ / 91¢
24h low 9¢24h high 9¢
Recent buying72% YES · 28% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢volSep 20, 11:36 AMSep 21, 3:45 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask89812¢
  • ask1,09511¢
  • ask69.1k10¢
  • ask30.0k10¢
  • ask1,94810¢
  • ask3,0329¢
  • ask1,9949¢
  • ask14.7k9¢
spread0¢mid 9¢
  • bid7949¢
  • bid6,0009¢
  • bid12.2k9¢
  • bid4,7849¢
  • bid10.0k9¢
  • bid3009¢
  • bid4209¢
  • bid2,0278¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 10, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESPERSON-28-AOCA
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 94¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 72% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
53m ago9¢196bought no
3h ago9¢30bought yes
3h ago9¢1,563bought no
4h ago9¢20bought yes
5h ago9¢20bought yes
5h ago9¢101bought yes
6h ago9¢203bought no
9h ago9¢244bought no
9h ago9¢931bought no
10h ago9¢69bought no
10h ago9¢296bought no
17h ago9¢10bought yes
1d ago9¢506bought yes
1d ago9¢5,055bought yes
1d ago9¢253bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.