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Pres person·closes in 38mo

Who will win the next presidential election?

YES means Gavin Newsom

24h volume
4,426
3.87M lifetime
Open interest
1.87M
+330.1k over 90d
Spread
0¢
12 × 37.6k at the touch
24h range
8¢ – 8¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
8%

A YES contract costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
92%

costs 92¢

YES bid / ask
8¢ / 8¢
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 92¢
24h low 8¢24h high 8¢
Recent buying77% YES · 23% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
5¢10¢15¢20¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask29.3k9¢
  • ask30.3k9¢
  • ask18.5k8¢
  • ask1348¢
  • ask1218¢
  • ask4,1138¢
  • ask20.1k8¢
  • ask37.6k8¢
spread0¢mid 8¢
  • bid128¢
  • bid488¢
  • bid3968¢
  • bid20.9k8¢
  • bid1597¢
  • bid1817¢
  • bid50.1k7¢
  • bid387¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Gavin Newsom is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 10, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESPERSON-28-GNEWS
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 94¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 77% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
22m ago8¢1bought yes
23m ago8¢1bought yes
23m ago8¢1bought yes
24m ago8¢1bought yes
24m ago8¢1bought yes
25m ago8¢1bought yes
25m ago8¢1bought yes
26m ago8¢1bought yes
26m ago8¢1bought yes
27m ago8¢1bought yes
27m ago8¢1bought yes
28m ago8¢1bought yes
28m ago8¢23bought yes
28m ago8¢14bought yes
28m ago8¢30bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.