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Pres person·closes in 38mo

Who will win the next presidential election?

YES means Hunter Biden

24h volume
0
859.0k lifetime
Open interest
818.4k
Spread
1¢
0 × 1.33M at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 100¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask15.0k14¢
  • ask1,25010¢
  • ask2,5009¢
  • ask1,2505¢
  • ask7484¢
  • ask13¢
  • ask202.4k2¢
  • ask1.33M1¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Hunter Biden is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Jun 4 · 11:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXPRESPERSON-28-HBID
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 95¢).

    Recent trades

    Over the last 50 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    4d ago1¢94bought yes
    10d ago1¢157bought yes
    11d ago1¢23bought yes
    12d ago1¢2,338bought yes
    13d ago1¢5.33bought yes
    13d ago1¢833bought yes
    14d ago1¢70bought yes
    14d ago1¢94bought yes
    15d ago1¢94bought yes
    15d ago1¢0.93bought yes
    16d ago1¢468bought yes
    18d ago1¢2.8bought yes
    24d ago1¢467bought yes
    24d ago1¢9.35bought yes
    27d ago1¢935bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.