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Pres person·closes in 38mo

Who will win the next presidential election?

YES means Josh Shapiro

24h volume
8,226
1.94M lifetime
Open interest
1.33M
Spread
0¢
2,002 × 130 at the touch
24h range
3¢ – 3¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%−0

A YES contract costs 3¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 3¢
NO bid / ask
97¢ / 97¢
24h low 3¢24h high 3¢
Recent buying49% YES · 51% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1003¢
  • ask5,2233¢
  • ask5093¢
  • ask18.3k3¢
  • ask57.1k3¢
  • ask27.4k3¢
  • ask93.5k3¢
  • ask1303¢
spread0¢mid 3¢
  • bid2,0023¢
  • bid373¢
  • bid2442¢
  • bid4822¢
  • bid3322¢
  • bid5,7552¢
  • bid3952¢
  • bid3502¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Josh Shapiro is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 10, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESPERSON-28-JSHA
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 94¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 49% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4h ago3¢200bought no
4h ago3¢1bought no
4h ago3¢1.04bought no
4h ago3¢2,000bought no
4h ago3¢998bought no
4h ago3¢1,713bought no
4h ago3¢34bought no
5h ago3¢1bought yes
8h ago3¢3,277bought yes
1d ago3¢267bought no
2d ago3¢1,003bought yes
2d ago3¢1,003bought yes
2d ago3¢37bought no
2d ago3¢1,338bought yes
3d ago3¢100bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.