galdor.xyz
Admin
Pres person·closes in 38mo

Who will win the next presidential election?

YES means J.D. Vance

24h volume
7,767
4.15M lifetime
Open interest
2.40M
−3,692 over 24h
Spread
1¢
1,732 × 179.1k at the touch
24h range
22¢ – 23¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
23%+1

A YES contract costs 23¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
77%

costs 78¢

YES bid / ask
22¢ / 23¢
NO bid / ask
77¢ / 78¢
24h low 22¢24h high 23¢
Recent buying39% YES · 61% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
20¢25¢30¢volSep 20, 4:26 AMSep 21, 4:02 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5330¢
  • ask5529¢
  • ask4,87928¢
  • ask5,19327¢
  • ask1,16126¢
  • ask12.9k25¢
  • ask39.1k24¢
  • ask179.1k23¢
spread1¢mid 22¢
  • bid1,73222¢
  • bid21.5k21¢
  • bid32.1k20¢
  • bid57.8k19¢
  • bid51.8k18¢
  • bid13.0k17¢
  • bid14.1k16¢
  • bid18.4k15¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If J.D. Vance is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 10, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESPERSON-28-JVAN
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 94¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 39% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
5m ago23¢18bought yes
5m ago22¢18bought no
5m ago22¢18bought no
5m ago22¢18bought no
5m ago22¢18bought no
5m ago22¢18bought no
5m ago22¢18bought no
5m ago22¢18bought no
5m ago22¢18bought no
5m ago22¢18bought no
5m ago22¢18bought no
5m ago22¢18bought no
5m ago22¢18bought no
5m ago22¢18bought no
5m ago22¢18bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.