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Pres person·closes in 38mo

Who will win the next presidential election?

YES means Tim Walz

24h volume
9.34
566.3k lifetime
Open interest
461.9k
+32.6k over 30d
Spread
0¢
0 × 123.1k at the touch
24h range
0¢ – 0¢
36 recent trades
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs 0¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 0¢
NO bid / ask
100¢ / 100¢
24h low 0¢24h high 0¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volAug 22Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5,00013¢
  • ask1,9323¢
  • ask1592¢
  • ask3,9631¢
  • ask10.0k1¢
  • ask198.8k0¢
  • ask145.6k0¢
  • ask123.1k0¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Tim Walz is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    May 14, 2025 · 10:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Nov 7, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 21, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXPRESPERSON-28-TWAL
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 94¢).

    Recent trades

    Over the last 36 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    20h ago0¢9.34bought yes
    2d ago0¢4,000bought yes
    3d ago0¢9,340bought yes
    4d ago0¢863bought yes
    4d ago0¢968bought yes
    4d ago0¢1,832bought yes
    24d ago0¢92bought yes
    26d ago0¢916bought yes
    29d ago0¢4,673bought yes
    29d ago0¢500bought yes
    29d ago0¢6,376bought yes
    29d ago0¢1,624bought yes
    29d ago0¢500bought yes
    29d ago0¢935bought yes
    30d ago0¢1,832bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.