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Who will win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?·closes in 28mo

Will Chris Van Hollen win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

YES means Chris Van Hollen

24h volume
0
19.7k lifetime
Open interest
12.9k
+24 over 30d
Spread
4¢
200 × 25 at the touch
24h range
–
15 recent trades
Chance of YES
9%

A YES contract costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
91%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask
5¢ / 8¢
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 96¢
Recent buying84% YES · 16% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢volAug 22Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,51846¢
  • ask1,25020¢
  • ask1,00015¢
  • ask46611¢
  • ask3,34010¢
  • ask1009¢
  • ask2009¢
  • ask258¢
spread3¢mid 6¢
  • bid2005¢
  • bid1114¢
  • bid1114¢
  • bid1,5124¢
  • bid470¢
  • bid5950¢
  • bid1,0220¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Chris Van Hollen wins the next Senate Democratic Leader election, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. For referendums, "Yes" and "No" are the options. For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) is the winner. Markets resolve based on official results, not exit polls or projections. If elections are postponed beyond the expiration date, markets resolve to No. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 25, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSENATEDEMLEAD-28JAN01-CHOL
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 110¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 15 trades, 84% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago9¢19bought yes
3d ago9¢90bought yes
3d ago9¢100bought yes
18d ago4¢9.4bought no
20d ago9¢10bought yes
1mo ago10¢79bought yes
1mo ago10¢15bought yes
1mo ago4¢81bought no
1mo ago10¢9.4bought yes
1mo ago10¢19bought yes
1mo ago10¢19bought yes
2mo ago4¢47bought no
2mo ago10¢9.49bought yes
2mo ago10¢327bought yes
2mo ago10¢50bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.