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Who will win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?·closes in 28mo

Will Chuck Schumer win the next Senate Democratic Leader election?

YES means Chuck Schumer

24h volume
555
24.3k lifetime
Open interest
15.6k
−433 over 30d
Spread
5¢
340 × 25 at the touch
24h range
53¢ – 59¢
18 recent trades
Chance of YES
59%+4

A YES contract costs 55¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
41%

costs 50¢

YES bid / ask
50¢ / 55¢
NO bid / ask
45¢ / 50¢
24h low 53¢24h high 59¢
Recent buying84% YES · 16% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
45¢50¢55¢60¢65¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask1,21481¢
  • ask5478¢
  • ask6866¢
  • ask1,00065¢
  • ask364¢
  • ask42560¢
  • ask20057¢
  • ask2555¢
spread5¢mid 53¢
  • bid34050¢
  • bid73049¢
  • bid18548¢
  • bid244¢
  • bid143¢
  • bid142¢
  • bid141¢
  • bid1,00540¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Chuck Schumer wins the next Senate Democratic Leader election, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. For referendums, "Yes" and "No" are the options. For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) is the winner. Markets resolve based on official results, not exit polls or projections. If elections are postponed beyond the expiration date, markets resolve to No. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 25, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSENATEDEMLEAD-28JAN01-CSHU
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 110¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 18 trades, 84% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
15h ago59¢55bought yes
15h ago54¢100bought yes
15h ago54¢200bought yes
16h ago53¢200bought yes
2d ago52¢3bought yes
2d ago55¢17bought yes
6d ago49¢38bought no
8d ago49¢1bought no
9d ago52¢100bought yes
20d ago53¢46bought yes
30d ago54¢18bought yes
1mo ago49¢81bought no
1mo ago60¢1.5bought yes
2mo ago58¢20bought yes
2mo ago52¢10bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.