Will Social Security’s retirement trust fund be depleted?·closes in 76mo

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the OASI Trust Fund reserves are depleted such that full scheduled Social Security retirement and survivors benefits are no longer payable under then-current law before Jan 1, 2033?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2033

24h volume
0
2,181 lifetime
Open interest
73
+0 over 24h
Spread
50¢
5 × 2.17 at the touch
24h range
Chance of YES
20%

A YES contract costs 53¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
80%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
/ 53¢
NO bid / ask
47¢ / 97¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢25¢50¢volSep 20, 4:21 AMSep 20, 11:05 PM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Order book unavailable.

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the OASI Trust Fund reserves are depleted such that full scheduled Social Security retirement and survivors benefits are no longer payable under then-current law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2033, then the market resolves to Yes.

Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

opened
Jun 9 · 5:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2033 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2033 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSOCIALSECURITYDEPLETE-33-33JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Social Security’s retirement trust fund be depleted?.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.