Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the OASI Trust Fund reserves are depleted such that full scheduled Social Security retirement and survivors benefits are no longer payable under then-current law before Jan 1, 2033?
YES means Before Jan 1, 2033
- 24h volume
- 0
- 2,181 lifetime
- Open interest
- 73
- −250 over 90d
- Spread
- 50¢
- 5 × 2.17 at the touch
- 24h range
- 5¢ – 51¢
- 30 recent trades
A YES contract costs 53¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 97¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
Order book unavailable.
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If the OASI Trust Fund reserves are depleted such that full scheduled Social Security retirement and survivors benefits are no longer payable under then-current law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2033, then the market resolves to Yes.
Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
- opened
- Jun 9 · 5:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Jan 1, 2033 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Jan 8, 2033 · 3:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXSOCIALSECURITYDEPLETE-33-33JAN01
This event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
This is the only market in its event.
Recent trades
Over the last 30 trades, 37% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5d ago | 20¢ | 1.17 | bought yes |
| 7d ago | 14¢ | 6.33 | bought no |
| 14d ago | 19¢ | 2.83 | bought yes |
| 14d ago | 18¢ | 1.17 | bought no |
| 30d ago | 15¢ | 5 | bought no |
| 30d ago | 15¢ | 1.35 | bought no |
| 2mo ago | 19¢ | 1.69 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 19¢ | 0.11 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 20¢ | 0.11 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 15¢ | 0.11 | bought no |
| 2mo ago | 14¢ | 5 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 50¢ | 4 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 14¢ | 100 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 51¢ | 1.22 | bought yes |
| 2mo ago | 14¢ | 5 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.