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Will Social Security’s retirement trust fund be depleted?·closes in 75mo

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the OASI Trust Fund reserves are depleted such that full scheduled Social Security retirement and survivors benefits are no longer payable under then-current law before Jan 1, 2033?

YES means Before Jan 1, 2033

24h volume
0
2,185 lifetime
Open interest
73
Spread
7¢
5.34 × 2 at the touch
24h range
–
Chance of YES
13%

A YES contract costs 20¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
87%

costs 87¢

YES bid / ask
13¢ / 20¢
NO bid / ask
80¢ / 87¢
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask46658¢
  • ask97857¢
  • ask38053¢
  • ask5552¢
  • ask9036¢
  • ask131¢
  • ask20021¢
  • ask220¢
spread7¢mid 16¢
  • bid5.3413¢
  • bid20012¢
  • bid993¢
  • bid3822¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the OASI Trust Fund reserves are depleted such that full scheduled Social Security retirement and survivors benefits are no longer payable under then-current law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2033, then the market resolves to Yes.

Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 9 · 5:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2033 · 4:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 8, 2033 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSOCIALSECURITYDEPLETE-33-33JAN01
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in Will Social Security’s retirement trust fund be depleted?.

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.