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51st state ·closes in 28mo

Will any part of Cuba be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029?

YES means Cuba

24h volume
23
249.2k lifetime
Open interest
98.8k
+0 over 24h
Spread
1¢
500 × 2,214 at the touch
24h range
4¢ – 4¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%+2

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 97¢
24h low 4¢24h high 4¢
Recent buying30% YES · 70% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 20, 2:14 PMSep 21, 12:19 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5411¢
  • ask2110¢
  • ask2519¢
  • ask1,5008¢
  • ask1,0237¢
  • ask2,0006¢
  • ask13.5k5¢
  • ask2,2144¢
spread1¢mid 4¢
  • bid5003¢
  • bid3,6922¢
  • bid10.7k1¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the 51st state is any part of Cuba before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 12 · 7:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXSTATE51-29-CU
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 13¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 30% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
14h ago4¢23bought yes
1d ago2¢1bought no
2d ago2¢320bought no
2d ago2¢62bought no
2d ago2¢138bought no
2d ago3¢240bought no
2d ago3¢2bought no
2d ago3¢100bought no
2d ago3¢300bought no
2d ago3¢192bought no
2d ago2¢192bought no
3d ago4¢0.23bought yes
3d ago4¢39bought yes
3d ago4¢2.1bought yes
5d ago4¢18bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.