51st state ·closes in 28mo

Will any part of Cuba be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029?

YES means Cuba

24h volume: 23; 249.2k lifetime
Open interest: 98.8k; −1,206 over 7d
Spread: 1¢; 500 × 2,214 at the touch
24h range: 2¢ – 4¢

Chance of YES

4%+2

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

96%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask

3¢ / 4¢

NO bid / ask

96¢ / 97¢

24h low 2¢24h high 4¢

What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.

2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.

3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h 7d 30d 90d

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes

ask5411¢
ask2110¢
ask2519¢
ask1,5008¢
ask1,0237¢
ask2,0006¢
ask13.5k5¢
ask2,2144¢

spread1¢mid 4¢

bid5003¢
bid3,6922¢
bid10.7k1¢

Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the 51st state is any part of Cuba before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources

Library of Congress

opened: May 12 · 7:00 PM UTC
closes: Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by: Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker: KXSTATE51-29-CU

Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 13¢).

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.