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Next Swedish Prime Minister·closes in 16mo

Will Ebba Busch become Prime Minister of Sweden following the 2026 Swedish general election?

YES means Ebba Busch

24h volume
0
1,137 lifetime
Open interest
1,082
+1,033 over 90d
Spread
1¢
0 × 1,466 at the touch
24h range
–
12 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 100¢
Recent buying95% YES · 5% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volJul 8Sep 19

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask20099¢
  • ask5098¢
  • ask2524¢
  • ask1,96122¢
  • ask112¢
  • ask1,0004¢
  • ask2,1163¢
  • ask1,4661¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Ebba Busch becomes Prime Minister of Sweden as a result of government formation following the 2026 Swedish general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

    The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Jan 1, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Jul 8 · 12:00 AM UTC
    closes
    Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 1, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXSWEDENPM-26SEP13-EBUS
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 101¢).

    Recent trades

    Over the last 12 trades, 95% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    3d ago1¢45bought yes
    3d ago1¢187bought yes
    10d ago1¢280bought yes
    11d ago2¢468bought yes
    12d ago3¢2.22bought yes
    12d ago3¢15bought yes
    27d ago3¢0.01bought yes
    27d ago3¢0.01bought yes
    27d ago3¢0.01bought yes
    27d ago3¢0.01bought yes
    30d ago1¢50bought no
    2mo ago4¢3bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.