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US annual trade deficit·closes in 5mo

Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 120‎ billion and 139.9‎ billion?

YES means 120‎ billion to 139.9‎ billion

24h volume
0
800 lifetime
Open interest
567
+22 over 90d
Spread
8¢
0 × 1 at the touch
24h range
–
5 recent trades
Chance of YES
5%

A YES contract costs 8¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
95%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 8¢
NO bid / ask
92¢ / 100¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volJul 6Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask4484¢
  • ask25077¢
  • ask20051¢
  • ask450¢
  • ask18¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If US trade deficit for 2026 is between 120‎ billion and 139.9‎ billion, then the market resolves to Yes.

    The Expiration Value is the annual seasonally adjusted U.S. trade balance (goods and services) for 2026, as reported in the FT-900 release covering December 2026.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Feb 24 · 3:00 PM UTC
    closes
    Feb 28, 2027 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    May 29, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
    floor
    120
    cap
    139.9
    ticker
    KXTRADEDEFICIT-27FEB28-B129.95
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 129¢).

    Recent trades

    Over the last 5 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    27d ago5¢14bought yes
    2mo ago6¢10bought yes
    2mo ago6¢8.91bought yes
    2mo ago4¢1bought yes
    2mo ago5¢18bought yes

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.