Will US trade deficit for 2026 be above 170 billion?
YES means Above 170 billion
- 24h volume
- 0
- 5,128 lifetime
- Open interest
- 2,325
- +0 over 24h
- Spread
- 18¢
- 55 × 22 at the touch
- 24h range
- –
- 34 recent trades
A YES contract costs 95¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 23¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask25399¢
- ask1,35798¢
- ask33197¢
- ask20096¢
- ask2295¢
- bid5577¢
- bid20076¢
- bid6975¢
- bid20074¢
- bid147¢
- bid7846¢
- bid60024¢
- bid1,21823¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If US trade deficit for 2026 is above 170 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
The Expiration Value is the annual seasonally adjusted U.S. trade balance (goods and services) for 2026, as reported in the FT-900 release covering December 2026.
- opened
- Feb 24 · 3:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Feb 28, 2027 · 1:29 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- May 29, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
- floor
- 170
- ticker
- KXTRADEDEFICIT-27FEB28-T170
Other outcomes in this event
Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 129¢).
- 119.6 billion to 119.9 billion6¢
- 55 billion to 64.9 billion5¢
- 65 billion to 74.9 billion5¢
- 95 billion to 104.9 billion5¢
- 120 billion to 139.9 billion5¢
- 140 billion to 170 billion5¢
- Below 45 billion2¢
- 105 billion to 119.5 billion2¢
- 45 billion to 54.9 billion1¢
- 75 billion to 84.9 billion1¢
- 85 billion to 94.9 billion1¢
Recent trades
Over the last 34 trades, 72% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15d ago | 91¢ | 1.08 | bought yes |
| 19d ago | 86¢ | 6 | bought no |
| 19d ago | 87¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 95¢ | 1 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 89¢ | 0.22 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 87¢ | 26 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 87¢ | 27 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 87¢ | 500 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 86¢ | 1 | bought no |
| 1mo ago | 86¢ | 1 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 86¢ | 1 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 88¢ | 366 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 90¢ | 250 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 89¢ | 175 | bought yes |
| 1mo ago | 87¢ | 500 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.