Will Donald Trump or any members of his immediate family or their spouses receive a presidential pardon before Jan 20, 2029?
YES means Yes
- 24h volume
- 5
- 21.0k lifetime
- Open interest
- 10.2k
- +1.38 over 24h
- Spread
- 15¢
- 96 × 13 at the touch
- 24h range
- 70¢ – 70¢
- 50 recent trades
A YES contract costs 84¢ and pays $1 if it happens.
costs 31¢
An independent read of this market
Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.
Price history
YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.
Order book
Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.
- ask1,11199¢
- ask2,22299¢
- ask4999¢
- ask1,54699¢
- ask44496¢
- ask31096¢
- ask3588¢
- ask1384¢
- bid9669¢
- bid5468¢
- bid8.2967¢
- bid266¢
- bid45965¢
- bid50062¢
- bid22358¢
- bid50045¢
How this market resolves
Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.
If Donald Trump or any members of his immediate family or their spouses has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves to Yes if the specified person receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during the specified Presidential term and before the deadline date. The pardon can be for any federal crime. Commutations that reduce sentences and reprieves that delay punishment also satisfy the criterion. State-level pardons do not count. The Presidential term continues even if the President changes due to succession or resignation. As of issuance, qualifying names include: Melania Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Ivanka Trump, Jared Kushner, Eric Trump, Lara Trump, Tiffany Trump, Michael Boulos, Barron Trump, Elizabeth Trump Grau, James Walter Grau. Immediate family includes spouses, children, and siblings.
- opened
- Oct 24, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
- closes
- Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
- settles by
- Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
- ticker
- KXTRUMPPARDONFAMILY-29JAN20
This event
Outcomes in this event settle independently.
This is the only market in Will the Trump family be pardoned?.
Recent trades
Over the last 50 trades, 46% of contracts were bought on the YES side.
| When | YES | Contracts | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7h ago | 70¢ | 3.62 | bought yes |
| 7h ago | 70¢ | 1.38 | bought yes |
| 5d ago | 70¢ | 1 | bought yes |
| 5d ago | 69¢ | 1.38 | bought no |
| 8d ago | 70¢ | 125 | bought yes |
| 11d ago | 73¢ | 3.52 | bought no |
| 11d ago | 71¢ | 5 | bought no |
| 11d ago | 70¢ | 51 | bought no |
| 13d ago | 70¢ | 3.38 | bought no |
| 15d ago | 70¢ | 138 | bought no |
| 16d ago | 88¢ | 3.38 | bought yes |
| 16d ago | 88¢ | 5 | bought yes |
| 17d ago | 70¢ | 3.17 | bought no |
| 19d ago | 70¢ | 2.5 | bought no |
| 23d ago | 70¢ | 2.76 | bought yes |
Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.