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Trump pardons his family·closes in 28mo

Will Donald Trump or any members of his immediate family or their spouses receive a presidential pardon before Jan 20, 2029?

YES means Yes

24h volume
5
21.0k lifetime
Open interest
10.2k
Spread
15¢
96 × 13 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
70%

A YES contract costs 84¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
30%

costs 31¢

YES bid / ask
69¢ / 84¢
NO bid / ask
16¢ / 31¢
Recent buying46% YES · 54% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask51100¢
  • ask1,11199¢
  • ask2,22299¢
  • ask1,67199¢
  • ask44496¢
  • ask31096¢
  • ask3588¢
  • ask1384¢
spread15¢mid 76¢
  • bid9669¢
  • bid5468¢
  • bid8.2967¢
  • bid266¢
  • bid45965¢
  • bid50062¢
  • bid22358¢
  • bid50045¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Donald Trump or any members of his immediate family or their spouses has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves to Yes if the specified person receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during the specified Presidential term and before the deadline date. The pardon can be for any federal crime. Commutations that reduce sentences and reprieves that delay punishment also satisfy the criterion. State-level pardons do not count. The Presidential term continues even if the President changes due to succession or resignation. As of issuance, qualifying names include: Melania Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Ivanka Trump, Jared Kushner, Eric Trump, Lara Trump, Tiffany Trump, Michael Boulos, Barron Trump, Elizabeth Trump Grau, James Walter Grau. Immediate family includes spouses, children, and siblings.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 24, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXTRUMPPARDONFAMILY-29JAN20
Trade it on kalshi.com

This event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

This is the only market in its event.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 46% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
6h ago70¢3.62bought yes
6h ago70¢1.38bought yes
5d ago70¢1bought yes
5d ago69¢1.38bought no
7d ago70¢125bought yes
11d ago73¢3.52bought no
11d ago71¢5bought no
11d ago70¢51bought no
13d ago70¢3.38bought no
15d ago70¢138bought no
16d ago88¢3.38bought yes
16d ago88¢5bought yes
17d ago70¢3.17bought no
19d ago70¢2.5bought no
23d ago70¢2.76bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.